000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231445
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012

RECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW
THAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY
STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO
THE EAST.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.

BUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
DUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF
THE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER
TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT.
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR
70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE
LGEM.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN
THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE.  A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.  AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO.  THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO.  BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241439
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

ALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A
WARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -60C.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2.  THE INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE
VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

BUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL
AIR.  IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
WEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
ALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...
AND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
MIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT
MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING
TREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL.  THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD
DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.

BUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
030 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS.  THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...
WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS
BRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND
STILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON
DAY 3.

DUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON
SATURDAY.  DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 250233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES