000
WTNT45 KNHC 122108
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE HWRF.

GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 19.7N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 19.7N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 19.5N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 19.3N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.3N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 20.7N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 22.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN